8.6%: Yeah Nah, Bro.

Reaction to yesterday's CPI print. A glaring example of the health crisis in America. And some recommended viewing for your weekend.

Like I said yesterday in Two Years of Costco Receipts Tell the Story, the official numbers don’t really matter. We know what we’re actually dealing with on the ground. While everyone has their own personal rate of inflation based on what percentage of their income is spent on necessities, the figures also have varying rates by region and by category. Looking beyond just the headline number, we see more context. Check out food.

Food is, apparently, up just 10.1%. No chance. Not for us at least. Food at home, which is how 20 of our 21 weekly meals are prepared is up 11.9% according to the official data. That’s just not at all what we’re actually experiencing and I think I proved it yesterday. Look at what isn’t ahead of the headline number though. Smoking products. Alcohol. They’re not tracked here but I’d presume lottery tickets haven’t budged. The kind of things that aren’t exactly necessities but are also probably “down on your luck” type wants are below the headline CPI. For kicks, I went back and re-checked the same 11 cigars that I highlighted last May:

As a refresher, these are 5 pack prices via Cigars International. The 11 sticks picked are ones that I generally enjoy and try to rotate. Last year the average inflation rate was 8% when CPI was about 4%. This year we only see YoY increases in 6 of the labels and the average is a much more manageable 3.7%. Why? Because cigars are luxuries not necessities. This again speaks to the changing consumer habits I mentioned in yesterday’s piece.

$155 for 3 Days of Meals

This picture is making the rounds on Twitter.

It appears to be a Facebook post that is getting justifiably dunked on elsewhere. My kneejerk reaction is “my God, the soda…” However, after scanning the whole picture, it’s actually borderline depressing. I count SIX bags of chips. A bonanza of processed, pre-digested feed that is sure to lead to an insulin dependency over time. And the worst decision of all is probably the Red Baron that lacks pepperoni.

The Quarantine Pizza Epiphany

Long Live “Frozen Pizza Friday.”

Anyway, the real health crisis in this country has always been that somewhere between 40-50% of the population is obese. Not knowing how to cook is a cop out. There are quite literally hundreds of thousands of free “how to” videos on YouTube. Discipline. That’s all you need. Rant over.

Revisiting the Macro Thesis

Just to briefly re-visit my macro thesis with rationale for my equity and crypto exposure:

• I believe the Federal Reserve will pivot on tightening and rates

• I hold this view because US debt can’t be serviced without cheap credit

• Holding government debt that can’t be serviced is not a great idea

• If nobody will buy government debt, the Federal Reserve will be the buyer of last resort

Essentially my view is the Fed is the debt market. It’s a vicious cycle that doesn’t work. If the Fed doesn’t step in everything collapses and we have multi-generational event that probably results in bloodshed. Because of this, I believe the Fed will pivot far sooner than mainstream pundits do.

All of that being said, a person who holds a differing view is Darius Dale. And I find myself always learning when I listen to his takes. He’s a regular on Anthony Pompliano’s Better Business Show and I think his appearance from Thursday is worth your time.

I hope you all have a great weekend.

Disclosure: I’m not an investment advisor. I merely share what I do and why I do it. You shouldn’t take anything I say as investment advice and always do your own research when making investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies, tokens, STONKs, and digital trinkets could all go to zero.