If these guys wanted to keep gold and silver out of the hands of the peasants, what they would do is drive the price up. I don’t know why they’re suppressing it. Why don’t you make it unattainable? - David Brady via Palisades Gold Radio
Is it interesting that as Bitcoin $BTC-USD, a decentralized borderless digital asset that was designed to be peer to peer money, is entering the TradFi apparatus, Gold is leaving it?
I can’t unsee these charts. Not to go all “Tinfoil Hat Mike” on this, but listening to David Brady on Palisades Gold Radio this week sort of hit extra hard for some reason. Gold supply in global ETF products was within striking distance of its all time high in April 2022. It’s been down virtually in a straight line since. Is it a coincidence that Gold ETFs leaking metal started two months after the US and EU financially sanctioned Russia? How about the fact that Gold is up 17% from that April 2022 ETF supply level even as ETFs have puked metal out of the products?
Look, I’m loving this breakout. I have a nice position in Sprott Physical Bullion Trust PHYS 0.00%↑ that is warming my heart right now. But I think people might be forgetting just how enormous this move in Gold actually is in the grand scheme of things.
There are 7.5 billion ounces of Gold above ground. When Gold was $2,000/oz way back in February, the value of all the yellow metal was $15 trillion. As of market close today, Gold’s above ground market capitalization is just under $17.5 trillion. Bitcoin’s market cap is a little over $1.3 trillion. Meaning Gold just grew by about two Bitcoin market caps in a matter of a few weeks. So for all of the chest thumping from the orange coin brigade about percentage returns, one shouldn’t lose sight of who is still the boss of these streets.
So what is the boss trying to tell us?
Federal Rugpull Bank
We are now seeing prominent Federal Reserve Bank influencers officials floating the possibility that rates won’t be cut at all this year. It wasn’t all that long ago the market was busy pricing in 6 rate cuts while everyone casually YOLO’d Nvidia NVDA 0.00%↑ calls and ate bear porridge of various temperatures on the house. Now, a hike in June is a toss up and the Neel Kash & Carries of the world are floating zero through 2024.
Jobs number comes in hot at 300k. Government jobs made up about a quarter of those gains. Slight upward revision to previous two months. We’ll see where that goes. If you’re looking for data to support rate cuts, this ain’t it. - Brian Brenberg via
Look, I’ll admittedly be surprised if the market doesn’t get a cut this year. I’ll be even more surprised if we get additional rate hikes. But anything is possible. I think what is more likely is the fed tries to standpat and the treasury market rerates.
Friday was the highest close on the 2 year of 2024 and the 10 year looks like it has a date with 4.7%:
Meanwhile, oil is screaming and that figures to be bad for the Fed’s inflation fight.
In closing, even though I write about Bitcoin more, I still like Gold a lot. Now for an HSEP update…
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