Ya'll Must Be Crazy
Windell Middlebrooks (RIP) famously portrayed the Miller High Life delivery driver over a decade ago. The messaging on display in that campaign is about to come back in a big way.
This morning Seeking Alpha published my latest investment article. And it will probably be somewhat familiar to those of you who read Betting on Booze. Though I was challenging my own MolsonCoors (TAP) thesis in Betting on Booze, I think inflation is now going to do the opposite of what I pondered in that original piece two years ago.
Namely, I thought COVID lockdowns were going to expose weakness in distribution channels (it did) and the result would be a return to the localization of economies. While I still do think globalism from a manufacturing standpoint has been proven to be very dangerous, the new element that wasn’t in Betting on Booze is inflation. This is a nice summary of the idea from early in the article:
The core thesis behind this idea is one of behavior change. When consumers are faced with higher prices at the grocery store, they often have to change their habits and adjust to lower cost alternatives. For the beer industry, I think high inflation could actually help the more economic, legacy brand owners take back some market share.
I can’t get into much more than that regarding the article, but if you’re on Seeking Alpha (many of you are), I’d recommend reading that piece. I’d also love your thoughts. You can share them here or there, wherever you prefer.
Mess with the High Life and the High Life will mess with you. $11.50 for a burger? Ya’ll must be crazy!
This is one of my favorite quotes in any marketing campaign EVER. If you don’t remember the ad, here’s the video below:
It’s an amazing ad. For so many reasons.
$11.50 for a decent burger at a restaurant is pretty normal now
The messaging appeals to those who identify as “in the 99%”
Windell Middlebrooks might be the most believable actor ever
The most important fact about this campaign is it worked. It drove sales. To this day, I fondly remember High Life even though I haven’t really consumed it regularly since high school college. I’ve literally shared this ad at conferences in front of small business owners as an example of great marketing. It’s funny, it’s relatable, and it was a timely message.
The campaign came out right around the financial crisis. This beer was being positioned as a beer for the people. Not above the people. We can see that theme play out both figuratively and literally in the baseball game installment of the campaign:
And in the private jet installment:
Unfortunately, Windell Middlebrooks passed away a few years ago. So this character can’t really return unless it is portrayed by somebody else. The spirit of this High Life campaign though is due for a renaissance. $11.50 for a burger at a good restaurant might have been crazy in 2009, but it isn’t crazy now. Inflation is now a significant problem. It’s a problem economically. It’s a problem politically (for some). Most importantly though, it’s a problem for families.
I’m beating a dead horse at this point, but it is baffling to me that the Federal Reserve bank hasn’t taken extreme measures to fight this. The central bank will do emergency rate reductions when a crisis starts, but apparently can’t do emergency rate hikes to stop a currency crisis from happening. Is it possible the Fed knows that it is its own monetary policy that has caused this after all?
Regardless, it seems inflation isn’t going to be solved through any monetary policy integrity at this point. Monthly budgets will have to be examined. And difficult choices will have to be made. It sure seems like Netflix customers are already there. Every crisis presents an opportunity as they say. And there are three sure things in life; death, taxes, people drink during hard times. That drink is just going to have to be a little less expensive going forward.
Disclosure: I’m not an investment advisor. I merely share what I do and why I do it. You shouldn’t take anything I say as investment advice and always do your own research when making investment decisions. Cryptocurrencies, tokens, STONKs, and digital trinkets could all go to zero. I have no job and I live in my wife’s basement. I’m the last person on the face of the earth who you should listen to for financial advice or life advice. I’m not featured on trustworthy financial news sources like CNBC or Bloomberg and I don’t wear a necktie when I make my trades. I am long TAP.
To my thinking, there are only two things that could slow inflation right now: 1) massive expansion and maybe subsidies for energy production to reduce oil, fuel, natural gas prices, 2) massive recession leading to decreased inflation rate or deflation. Since the Oligarchs won’t do #1, it seems we are headed for #2. Long term we need to reduce regulatory burden and promote domestic manufacturing.
I’m not a finance gal, but I am a marketing gal. Love how this plays to the populist trend and also honors truckers! Libs, of course, will hate it, but do they even drink beer?