The Heretic Speculator April Month-End Newsletter
Down down down. Down down. Down. Down. Down. Woof.
April was an absolutely brutal month. It feels like I’ve been saying that pretty regularly in 2022. And that bad month was capped off by a cute little crypto market flash crash last night that saw the month end candle close at the low. From a content production perspective, I spent far more time than I ever thought possible writing about Twitter. In aggregate, I cranked out 21 posts in 30 days – 5 of which were for paid members only.
Market-wise, things don’t feel very good right now. Stocks look horrible. Shitcoins look horrible. The S&P wiped out a lot of progress in what had been a nice rally after Powell’s March FOMC meeting. More on that after the paywall. Everything is getting massacred, it seems.
Core Crypto Holdings – April Performance
Bitcoin (BTC) -17%
Ethereum (ETH) -17%
Zcash (ZEC) -36%
Polygon (MATIC) -36%
Solana (SOL) -31%
Litecoin (LTC) -23%
Avalanche (AVAX) -42%
While it would be easy to look at these declines and scoff at the volatility of the crypto market, the reality is even most of the FAANGs have seen this kind of performance year to date. In fact, Apple (AAPL) is the only FAANG stock beating Bitcoin year to date. Crazy right?
The fun thing about crypto is the market is open all the time. Saturday night’s flash crash resulted in some nice buy opportunities if you think you’re Matt Damon in a Crypto.com commercial. Last night I bought more ZEC at $114, DASH at $84, and another token that I’ve had eyes on for months. Stop me if you’ve heard me say this before, but it’s make or break for Bitcoin right now:
The 8 week and 20 week moving averages are neck and neck. They are so close that they are almost the same number. And Bitcoin isn’t actually that far away from them. We need two weeks ahead of those numbers and I think we’re potentially at an inflection point. If the 8 week closes above the 20 week and Bitcoin closes the week ahead of both, we have a very good setup.
Seeking Alpha Pieces
April was a very busy month for me on Seeking Alpha. In addition to getting my Heretic Speculator PRO marketplace ducks in a row, I dropped 7 public articles for Seeking Alpha - far and away my most productive month for that platform.
Allied Sports Entertainment: Like Buying a $1 Lottery Ticket for 75 Cents
MolsonCoors: Inflation Could Push Beer Drinkers Back to Legacy Brands
STONKS Performance
Stocks have been such a massive nightmare on an individual basis, that I ended up capitulating on quite a few losers. I’m out of my fuboTV (FUBO) trade at a big loss. I closed out of Costco (COST) at a big gain. I’m still in CSSE, NDLS, RGR, and ROKU - though it’s getting very hard to hold the latter. If you’re curious about another specific position that I’ve previously talked about, assume I either trimmed or sold out entirely.
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