The Heretic Speculator February Month-end Newsletter
Despite a continuation of the January selloff in February, fresh lows have been met with bids. I see a lot to be optimistic about market wise. Here's a recap of the Feb highlights.
If you recall, January was not fun. February was better, but still the S&P closed down again to end the month. The market is off to a rough start in 2022. We could blame Russia or the Fed, but the reality of the situation is many of the most popular stocks have been priced at nosebleed valuations for a long time. This purge was needed. That said, I want to thank everyone for what has truly been an incredible month personally and professionally (I am what they call “self-employed” now after all). The engagement on the Stack in February was terrific and subscribers grew by 16% over January. February was really solid.
At month end, there were 24 original posts for all of February, 7 of which were paywalled. There were 5 Seeking Alpha articles. And a January month end report that dropped on February 1st. That report also had a market insight for paid members only. February was another busy month and the first half of March is going to be pretty busy as well. Before I jump into the full February wrap up, a quick look ahead at what to expect in March. The Faybomb fam will be taking a much needed vacation down south for some sunshine, rest, and time with extended family in a few weeks. While I doubt I’ll be completely unplugged and there will be a couple of evergreen posts scheduled while I’m gone, the second half of March will be a bit more dialed down content-wise.
But before that happens, I’ll be dropping my second Founder Tier report in the middle of the month. I’m shooting for the 15th as a release date. This one is shaping up very nicely so far. For those unaware, Founder Tier subs get quarterly deep dive research pieces that provide a long term, high conviction investment idea. I’ll provide you all with a preview so you can get a sense of if the idea before committing to anything. The Founder Tier is $400 annually and worth every penny IMHO. You can check out a preview of the first Founder report HERE. Like just about every other name since mid-December, the equity pick from the first report is down since my December call. I happily bought more just a couple weeks ago and will continue to average into a larger position over time. You can get a better price than me! Just become a Founder and you’ll get access to last year’s report, the upcoming March report, and 3 more reports between now and the end of the year. And hey, if investing isn’t your thing but you know someone who might be interested, feel free to send the preview their way! I would really appreciate it :)
Now, in this month end review for February, I’m going to highlight each stock, ETF, and Cryptocurrency that I mentioned on the site during the month. I’ll provide updates to the stocks, ETFs, and cryptocurrencies that I mentioned in January. And I’ll provide a new market insight exclusively for paid members. Giddy up.
Crypto Holdings – February Performance
Bitcoin (BTC) +12.2%
Ethereum (ETH) +8.7%
Zcash (ZEC) +25.6%
Polygon (MATIC) -1.2%
Avalanche (AVAX) +21.2%
After an abysmal January, we saw a little bit of price stabilization in the popular crypto coins and tokens. It sure didn’t feel like it most of the month, but Bitcoin actually closed up in February. Thanks in large part to that awesome surge past $40k resistance up to $43,000 today.
Seeking Alpha Pieces
In the month of February, I published five pieces on Seeking Alpha and covered a fairly wide range of ideas. I wrote about Roku (ROKU) twice, Gold (XAU), Bitcoin (BTC), and Polycon (MATIC).
My main takeaway for potential investors: “Oversold technically, improved ad targeting, and more buying from ARK Investments.”
Polygon is Changing the Way We Buy NFTs
My main takeaway for potential investors: “Polygon has become the go to Ethereum scaling option for NFT projects and dApps.”
Global Uncertainty Could Push Metals Higher
My main takeaway for potential investors: “Gold looks poised to rise from here, it's time for Silver to start playing catch up.”
Roku: Turns Out The Bottom Was Not In
My main takeaway for potential investors: “A disappointing quarter and weak forward guidance driven by a temporary catalyst provide long term holders an opportunity to buy.”
Bitcoin: The Importance of Self-Custody
My main takeaway for potential investors: “The weaponization of financial services in a developed western country is the best advertisement for decentralized currencies one could produce.
STONKS Performance
To make this a little bit more simple to understand, I’m going to share the updated price performance of each stock that I mentioned on the site going back to January. The percentage shown is the performance since the mention:
Costco (COST) +8.7%
Sturm, Ruger, and Company (RGR) +7.0%
Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment (CSSE) -9.8%
Cantor/Rumble SPAC (CFVI) +2.9%
Roku (ROKU) 2/5 -12.1%
Roku (ROKU) 2/19 +24.1%
When you average weight those two Roku calls, we’re not doing too bad. CSSE still can’t seem to find a bottom. Everything else is behaving nicely.
Trade Ideas
I actually closed out of both of the trade ideas that I put on for paid subscribers in January. Though both swing trades failed to get to my original projection, I did get profit in each and beat the S&P in both names. Exiting both turned out to be the correct call as they traded down soon after:
CLOSED - Nautilus Group, Inc (NLS) +6.8% (vs +5.3% S&P)
CLOSED - Penn National Gaming (PENN) +16.2% (vs +5.3% S&P)
Again, those trades were for paid members only. But since they’re now closed, I’m fine with sharing the performance with everyone. I did not end up putting on another swing trade before the end of the month. That said, I see one developing that I like a lot. I’m waiting for what I hope is a bottom confirmation before I share that. But, if I’m right, I think it’s going to have a good move up.
Five ETFs for 2022
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