To be a fly on the wall when I realized the humming sound that I could hear intensifying on my back deck Tuesday was actually a bee colony swarming about 15 feet above my head. I can’t recall ever seeing that before but I think I lucked out. The bees appear to be gone. Their usage of a branch on a tree next to my back deck was just a temporary rest stop while the colony migrated.
The sight does not resemble a highly coordinated flock of starlings but rather, to us it appears quite chaotic. And yet, the teaming swarm soon begins to move, often for a great distance from the hive where they originated. There certainly seems to be some signal being generated which keeps the herd moving in a particular direction.
As I understand it, when the bees are migrating a colony, there are several scout bees that fly the area looking for places to stop and rest the group before ultimately finding the new home. I think that’s what was happening in my back yard earlier this week. I now know way more about bees than I did a week ago and it’s a fascinating species. We’re probably all familiar with “hivemind,” but bees have an unbelievable system of signaling within the community.
That system of scouting, signaling, and governance is impressive. When the bee colony migrates, it’s often because the colony has become too big and half the group splits off to form a new one. The level of communication and coordination without the ability to actually speak is incredibly impressive. It borders on telepathic. I’m just not sure I like them swarming that close to my head…
Why am I sharing this story? Well for one, I’ve had serious writer’s block over the last week or so. For the first time in a while, I feel like I’m paralyzed by choice. There is so much to write about and so little time. Twitter CEOs. Political drama. Calamities everywhere.
I have a half dozen unfinished pieces in draft and I doubt most of them will ever see the light of day. Meanwhile, I cranked out Crypto is a Circus last night because it was on my mind and I needed it not to be anymore.
If you haven’t read that one yet, the vibe is one of disappointment. It’s been such a disgusting 12 months following this market that it’s almost difficult to put it into words:
Ponzi coins collapsing
Centralized custodians likely committing fraud
Influencer rug pulls
Regulatory problems
The partisanship of an innovation that shouldn’t be partisan
We’ve done a lot of this to ourselves. But that last one really gets to the core problem I have at the moment. This technology can make people’s lives better and it does so without coercion. It really shouldn’t be partisan. Yet at a time when the advocates within the community should be fighting for the legitimacy of the tech, fighting against the ruler class, and actually using these things to help each other; we’re trading frog memes and wizard doodles instead. It’s exhausting. But I suppose this is why being human is different from being a bee.
Jacked Up Signals
Humans are different. We need each other to survive but we also have individual spirit that leads to incredible outcomes of creativity and progress from the achievements of the few. In our system is fracturing. Dare I say we’re splitting the colony. All to often the scouts on the ground are ignored and the signals are intentionally confusing. Too often those signals are lost or outright obfuscated. We’ve never had a greater technological ability to communicate with each other and yet we’re probably as bad at competently doing it as I can remember in my lifetime. I don’t know what the solution is but I lean we’re following the wrong signals.
For instance, what is the most important signal in the capital markets? One might suggest the cost of capital. Thus, it is patently absurd that we have a centrally planned and priced cost of capital. If free market price discovery is an important component of “capitalism,” the price controls on capital suggest we don’t actually have a free market, which means we don’t actually have real capitalism - frankly, I don’t even know how this is even up for debate.
But it is because of the rise and proliferation of putting false prophets on a pedestal. The OG magic internet money grifters who have intentionally obfuscated signals for decades are the ones who have caused the problems that free market capitalism now holds the bag for. We’re told by little bowl cut wearing trolls that it would be irresponsible not to borrow money from Peter to pay the money we owe Paul. It’s difficult for my little person brain to see how that is sustainable but I’m not paid millions in speaking fees to peddle bullshit.
How much does my currently five year old daughter owe the world in 2040 because the government decided it was important to find out how rats tripping balls would react to being sprayed with bobcat urine in 2020? My vote is nothing. But that’s just the debt-money Ponzi scheme and work. And the powers that be aren’t even really trying to hide the fact that it’s a confidence game at this point.
Congressional psychopaths are now squarely in the “because I said so” phase of the paternalistic government order when it comes to what gives dollars value.
Crypto bros make money literally by making money, and they've made over a trillion dollars. They'll accuse the U.S. government of making money out of thin air. Maybe we do, but we're the U.S. government.
And yet, it’s completely sensible to wonder if this system has been pushed to its limit. Because in a Ponzi scheme, you always need new investors to fund the payouts for the previous investors. And we’re running out of new investors.
Birth rates are down and we appear to be running out of workers as a percentage of the population. Surely that has an impact on tax receipts, I’d wager. That probably doesn’t end with favorable standards of living for the filthy masses who are expecting social program benefits in retirement.
Or maybe the central bank can just keep “printing” the difference forever.
Perhaps I’m the crazy one, but I think the natural world will find a way to remain undefeated.
Weekend Reads
Check your facts before fact checkers do by Modern Discontent
why e-verify is a deeply dangerous idea by el gato malo
Stan Druckenmiller, or Noah Smith? by Rudy Havenstein
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