What a Difference A Couple Weeks Can Make
On March 29th BTC broke above ceiling resistance, it was a fake breakout. What I said then, and what I'm seeing now in the charts.
Bitcoin, you’re nothing if not interesting. My bullishness essentially marked the local top of the breakout at the end of March in Crypto Market Looks Ready. Sorry, guys. Here’s what I’m seeing right now:
The daily chart above shows the pink trend support that I drew a couple days ago. I’m kind of making fun of myself here by showing the limitations of arbitrary diagonals. Arbitrary horizontals are definitely better. Either way, I don’t think this is a good looking chart. It’s why I’ve always liked moving averages on the weekly more. The weekly looks ugly though. Like wicked ugly.
After retaking the 8 and 20 week moving averages, Bitcoin has given both of them back in a matter of just a few days. Those averages are now converging and it is pretty imperative for my technical view that Bitcoin reverses here and tries to take those averages back this week. If not, I think bulls have big problems.
Positive catalysts haven’t mattered
Here’s what has happened since my month end March report. All of it I view as generally positive for the Bitcoin bullish narrative:
Michael Saylor bought $190 million in BTC (with MSTR funds, of course)
Do Kwon bought $230 million in BTC (with Terra Luna funds, of course)
The Bitcoin Conference in Miami happened
Peter Thiel called Warren Buffett a “sociopathic grandpa from Omaha”
Strike is integrating with Shopify
This is in addition to the overt financial weaponization that we’ve seen in geopolitics over the last couple months. None of it is helping Bitcoin. This begs the question; if BTC can’t rally in this environment, what the heck is the problem?
Buying Bitcoin in 2022 has been essentially buying the Nasdaq. Bitcoin has diverged temporarily a few times but the return YTD is almost identical. With the understanding that, at least for now, Bitcoin is trading as a tech risk asset, where should our eyes be going forward?
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