4 Pods, Quick Macro Thoughts, and a Portfolio Update
Some recommended listens, a brief teaser of an upcoming macro post, and a big update to my personal investment portfolio for members only.
Before we get started, apologies for what was close to a week without an update. I got whacked pretty bad with an illness on Thursday and haven’t been productive in any real capacity in about 4 days. In case you’re curious, no, it was not the ‘Rona. Though I have had the COVIDs already, I somehow managed to survive the winter of death and misery even without the miracle juice. Moving right along… while I haven’t been able to write as much as I would have liked over the last week or so, I have been able to digest some podcasts and before diving into paywalled content for my Subs, I thought I’d share some really good listens with all of you.
Podcast Recommendations
The first episode I’m sharing is actually the last podcast that I listened to; Hidden Forces by Demetri Kofinas. I’ve been listening to this program for years and this is one of the most interesting episodes I’ve heard in awhile. Though I watched Alex Jones sporadically about 10 to 12 years ago, I haven’t spent any time consuming his stuff in a very long time. I was essentially out right around the time of Sandy Hook.
This episode was really incredible and I think sheds some light on why so many people have found Alex Jones to be someone worth watching. Kofinas interviews Alex Lee Moyer who spent two years following Jones with a camera before recently releasing a documentary about him called Alex’s War. The hook that I find really interesting is that Moyer is self—proclaimed “classically liberal” but taped Jones regardless.
The next recommendation comes from QTR, a podcast that coincides with the Fringe Finance Substack publication. You’ll actually find that Stack in my recommendations section on the homepage. It's a lot like my Substack just with a little bit more cursing and a 3 drink minimum. Anyway, Chris’ recent episode with Andy Schectman is pretty chilling if you agree with the rationale for the statements (I do very much). There are couple common themes from my Crazy Like a Fox article back in February. I actually got sick shortly after listening to this one. So enjoy and Godspeed!
Jim Grant, who is probably icon status in the world of rates and hard money, has a podcast called Grant’s Current Yield. This episode from early August is a really interesting listen about some of the issues facing telecom companies. If you know a thing or two about dividends and corporate debt servicing, this one will be right up your alley.
Finally, The Breakdown with NLW is a crypto-focused podcast that I’ll occasionally listen to. Unlike the other three recommendations, The Breakdown is a daily podcast that often has a run time under 20 minutes. Occasionally though, Nathan will go longer form and interview a guest for a deeper dive and that’s exactly what we got on the 12th of August. Jill Gunter, a crypto venture capitalist, joined the pod to weigh in on privacy and decentralization in crypto post-Tornado Cash sanctions.
Listen to all of them, or none them. That’s entirely up to you! But I found them all very interesting/enjoyable and thought I’d share.
Macro Thoughts
I am planning to write a bigger post about my current macro thoughts in the next day or two, but for now I’d like to just share one chart… the 10 year yield:
This is the kind of chart that I would generally buy back in my Robinhood Challenge days. A diagonal trend breakout followed by a quick back-test and instant move higher. It’s a very juicy setup. Remember though, this is the 10 year yield. Debt yields going up should really be viewed as an inversion of what the market is doing.
Essentially, yields going up means bonds are selling off. This chart indicates bonds are about to get beat up and could potentially test 3.5% again after retaking 3% today. The CME is pricing in a 54.5% possibility of another 75 bps hike next month and the market has largely sold off on the idea that the Fed is going to continue hawkish behavior moving forward.
As I’m sure you know, I’m on record saying I think the July hike was the last one this year.
But, there is a second part of this hawkish narrative that I haven’t spent nearly as much time on and that’s the balance sheet. Has the Fed’s balance sheet tightening been true to their word? I’ll look at that in an upcoming post:
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