I keep averaging down in AXS 1.25X NVDA Bear Daily ETF NVDS 0.00%↑ and NVIDIA NVDA 0.00%↑ keeps going up 2 to 3% every single day. It’s a lot of fun!
So here’s the deal, I already made my bearish case over the last few days. Twice kind of…
Spoiler alert: Nvidia’s top was not in and the rod has not been spared for me. The NVDA gamma squeeze can continue longer than I can bear the pain through my short proxy.
I’m currently down about 20% on my NVDS position but you know what…
I’m not leaving! The show goes one!
At some point, this stock is going to stop going up every day. You can’t tell me that a market that has rallied for over a month on an anticipated rate cut in March - that Jerome Powell just said isn’t coming - can keep going up through March. I truly believe this is a blowoff top that will end in tears shortly. If this was a buy-everything-style “melt up,” we’d see more bullish behavior everywhere else, but we aren’t.
Oil is getting wrecked, down 8% this week:
Gold is getting walloped but could be at support, we’ll have to see next week:
Bitcoin is essentially flat since December and is showing a 50 day MA that appears to be stalling out:
Heck, even the Mag7 stocks can’t agree on what is bullish and what is bearish. Meta Platforms META 0.00%↑ reported a $1 billion revenue beat last night. It’s up 22% today. This isn’t some small-cap shitco, META already has a $1 trillion market cap!
Compare this with Microsoft MSFT 0.00%↑ - which just posted a similar $900 million revenue beat this week and was subsequently sold off the following day to the tune of almost 3%. Of course, the selloff day for MSFT was Wednesday - that was the day the Fed kept rates unchanged and threw cold water on March rate cut hopes. MSFT has nearly made up for that loss over the last two sessions.
So what the heck is driving all of this? Everything can’t possibly be good news right? Frankly, I’m at a loss. I don’t know what to make of it all. Nothing seems to add up to me. Just this morning we got a new jobs number from the federal government. The BLS reported a jobs increase of 353k in January. Of course, this shattered expectations for 185k and completely contradicts both private sector reports and the eye test.
The ADP number reported on Tuesday came in at 107k against an expectation for 150k and tech layoffs in the month were a hair under 31k - the most in a single month since March and more than the previous four months combined:
The government tries to provide a more accurate picture of the labor market by using so-called seasonal adjustments to minimize the occasional large swing in employment. But in recent years these adjustments have led to exaggerated job gains in January, economists say. The reported increase in new jobs in the month has topped 250,000 for six straight years.
- Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch
Here’s a question, if we see exaggerated jobs numbers in January year after year, is the methodology not in need of some sort of tweaking? Rhetorical. The methodology is intentionally ridiculous. I suppose all of this is somehow bullish for investment return on H100 chips at $30k a pop.
Anyway, Faybomb is salty. Faybomb only has himself to blame for buying things that go down when it’s absolutely obvious he shouldn’t be fighting the game. And so ends typing in the third person. I feel very similar to how I felt when I wrote this:
Which is to say it may be time to make a change in strategy soon as that is precisely what soon followed Dr. Doom Is Not Happy.
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