Thanks for the article Mike! Finished re-reading it just now and my 2 thoughts (2 cents) which are probably worth far less than 2 cents btw…are:
1. The MVRV top metric you noted for this BTC ‘cycle’ which occurred back in March is much more akin to the first of the 2 similar cycle ‘tops’ from the previous cycle…I.e. I agree with your general hunch on that one - but I’m very much talking my book here (though I do feel I have both relevant and sufficient “support” for my thesis on this one…enough for me at least 😂😬), and….
2. To your comment re: the bull case for Bitcoin at the present time having strong fundamental demand for supporting its price & continued general move higher (generally-speaking of course, during this current cycle more broadly, and not speaking to any specific price levels of support now) and your rather flippant comment about BTC having that digital gold narrative (I’m clearly offended on both Bitcoin’s behalf and my portfolio’s behalf here), and (parsing through your heavy sarcasm) the fact that gold isn’t really a popular investment class amongst the retail public: to that, I would counter you by simply adding the word “YET”!
Call me a fool for believing that “this time will be different” and “the tide is likely turning here” (just because I happen to have a rather idealistic view of the potential benefits Bitcoin (specifically) could bring to the human population if it could ever experience ubiquitous adoption globally as a store-of-value asset)….and then I’ll say, firstly, you’re probably correct for calling me a fool, but also, I kinda sorta believe my own fantasy to a degree here and it seems to me that gold’s popularity hasn’t been hurting too terribly badly of late either, now has it?
This is really interesting. I appreciate that you appreciate the heavy sarc that I often utilize in our little corner of the interweb. One point and then a question: I think Gold has a massive bid from central banks and eastern retail. I don’t think the global west generally cares at all. And I think the reason for that is it’s a turtle racing a rabbit. Yes, it’s going to still win when the rabbit needs a nap but, I don’t think the western retail investor has the patience. In some ways, BTC is perhaps more like silver than gold. It’s super volatile, can easily be self-stored in small quantities, and isn’t it necessarily clear exactly what box it checks to Wall Street. Here’s my question now: what would you have to see to believe Bitcoin is achieving that goal of ubiquitous adoption? I feel like Ive become quite jaded on that and would be open to your pov
Appreciate your response and very good question redirected back at me. For the most part I don’t have a great, clear answer for you. I know one thing is for certain: it shouldn’t be trading in tandem with $NVDA immediately following the latter’s release of its latest quarterly earnings report, that’s for damn sure. I guess the best ‘spin’ narrative punch-line/lipstick that I can put on this BTC piggie right now is: “we’re obviously still so early, man” lol. I really gotta try laughing right now otherwise I’m gonna be a wreck 😩
Personally, I don’t think you need to get too discouraged on correlation with NVDA. Algo trading is likely what controls most of these market moves. Most of this stuff goes up and down together against fiat.
Agreed. Big picture - I’m totally with you and I’m
In BTC for the long-haul. Leveraged up *ever so slightly* recently on BTC long side and so I think that’s what has triggered my teenage-like angsty side, and hence the histrionic hyperbole coming from me today on here 😂
*by “leveraged” I’m talking some small-ish positions in $MSTR and $BITU/$BITX but no margin, no borrowing to place these more ‘aggressive’ $BTC bets. I’m being responsible…kinda, sorta, you know…✌️🙏
Thanks for the article Mike! Finished re-reading it just now and my 2 thoughts (2 cents) which are probably worth far less than 2 cents btw…are:
1. The MVRV top metric you noted for this BTC ‘cycle’ which occurred back in March is much more akin to the first of the 2 similar cycle ‘tops’ from the previous cycle…I.e. I agree with your general hunch on that one - but I’m very much talking my book here (though I do feel I have both relevant and sufficient “support” for my thesis on this one…enough for me at least 😂😬), and….
2. To your comment re: the bull case for Bitcoin at the present time having strong fundamental demand for supporting its price & continued general move higher (generally-speaking of course, during this current cycle more broadly, and not speaking to any specific price levels of support now) and your rather flippant comment about BTC having that digital gold narrative (I’m clearly offended on both Bitcoin’s behalf and my portfolio’s behalf here), and (parsing through your heavy sarcasm) the fact that gold isn’t really a popular investment class amongst the retail public: to that, I would counter you by simply adding the word “YET”!
Call me a fool for believing that “this time will be different” and “the tide is likely turning here” (just because I happen to have a rather idealistic view of the potential benefits Bitcoin (specifically) could bring to the human population if it could ever experience ubiquitous adoption globally as a store-of-value asset)….and then I’ll say, firstly, you’re probably correct for calling me a fool, but also, I kinda sorta believe my own fantasy to a degree here and it seems to me that gold’s popularity hasn’t been hurting too terribly badly of late either, now has it?
To the 🌙!!! 🚀🚀🚀!!!
This is really interesting. I appreciate that you appreciate the heavy sarc that I often utilize in our little corner of the interweb. One point and then a question: I think Gold has a massive bid from central banks and eastern retail. I don’t think the global west generally cares at all. And I think the reason for that is it’s a turtle racing a rabbit. Yes, it’s going to still win when the rabbit needs a nap but, I don’t think the western retail investor has the patience. In some ways, BTC is perhaps more like silver than gold. It’s super volatile, can easily be self-stored in small quantities, and isn’t it necessarily clear exactly what box it checks to Wall Street. Here’s my question now: what would you have to see to believe Bitcoin is achieving that goal of ubiquitous adoption? I feel like Ive become quite jaded on that and would be open to your pov
Appreciate your response and very good question redirected back at me. For the most part I don’t have a great, clear answer for you. I know one thing is for certain: it shouldn’t be trading in tandem with $NVDA immediately following the latter’s release of its latest quarterly earnings report, that’s for damn sure. I guess the best ‘spin’ narrative punch-line/lipstick that I can put on this BTC piggie right now is: “we’re obviously still so early, man” lol. I really gotta try laughing right now otherwise I’m gonna be a wreck 😩
Personally, I don’t think you need to get too discouraged on correlation with NVDA. Algo trading is likely what controls most of these market moves. Most of this stuff goes up and down together against fiat.
Agreed. Big picture - I’m totally with you and I’m
In BTC for the long-haul. Leveraged up *ever so slightly* recently on BTC long side and so I think that’s what has triggered my teenage-like angsty side, and hence the histrionic hyperbole coming from me today on here 😂
*by “leveraged” I’m talking some small-ish positions in $MSTR and $BITU/$BITX but no margin, no borrowing to place these more ‘aggressive’ $BTC bets. I’m being responsible…kinda, sorta, you know…✌️🙏