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G Dub 19's avatar

Holding no Bitcoin into FOMC day tomorrow, Mike? WTF bruh?? Say it ain’t so, bro! I pay you a nominal monthly fee with this unspoken tacit understanding that in return, you’re gonna pump my godd@mn bags, my dear crypto North Czar!!

Pump. My. Godd@mn. Bags. Please 🙏?? Lol…They’ve been nothing but chop/slightly down for 6 full months now. Dear god, Mike, do you understand how long 6 months feels when you’re positioned at around 50% of your entire (ex-real estate) investment portfolio in a single asset that just chops/bleeds out slowly for that entire time??? No, you probably don’t, because I seriously doubt you’ve ever allocated your own hard-earned $$ in such an unbelievably irresponsible way, my dear man. Good for you. I’m happy for you in that way…

Seriously, I am. I hope you are indeed as responsible with your fund allocations as I imagine you to be. Truly.

However, one serious question amongst all my histrionics in this here post: seriously, you have no $BTC long exposure at this point in time?? I’m highly suspicious of such a scenario to be frank [as if I have some great insight into your portfolio make-up at any given time, right?…haha…or do I…?? 🤔🤫].

But back to my point: I’m actually SOOO suspicious of this dubious notion that you truly have ZERO bitcoin exposure at this very moment, that unless I hear directly from you, specifically stating the contrary, I’m gonna go ahead and assume that you simply neglected to mention it amongst your list of active long positions heading into Jerome’s jazzy spectacular (aka the FOMC meeting). It should be so presumed that you are long $BTC at any given point in time, I take it, that you need not even make mention of it in general gentlemen’s discourse, right?? Right Mike??? Pump. Bags. Must. Need. Moon. Rocket ship. Lambos. Something. Anything….

Pump. My. Bags. Jerome!! [Even. Though. It’ll. Most. Likely. Actually. Be. Janet. Doing. The. Majority. Of. The. Stroking. Of. My. Bitcoin. Long. Behind. The. Scenes!!]

P.S. as an aside, something I’ve just been dying to share with someone else for so long now, and I just can’t keep it bottled up in silence any longer: Janet Y is such a TSILF, if I’ve ever seen one, am I right?? Cmon, you know you’re with me on that one fellas…and likely many of the ladies out there too…I need a very cold shower pre-FOMC I think.

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Mike Fay's avatar

👀… definitely forgot to put BTC in that list. Yes, I’m obviously still long Bitcoin a variety of different ways. No, I would not recommend 50% 😆

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G Dub 19's avatar

Prediction: Gold goes up some more between now and EOY 2024. Bitcoin goes up significantly more than Gold does through the end of 2024 and likely into at least some portion of 2025. I think $BTC is truly gonna start surprising folks to the upside again, just as everyone has discounted it as not as volatile/exciting to the upside as it once was. Relegating it to “just digital gold” and also PRESUMING that it will therefore, at best, only trade as gold does…that’s when Bitcoin (imho) is gonna kick off her pleated dress slacks and she’s gonna get her shiny, shimmering spandex-tighted arse jazzercising again. (Not sure why I went with that metaphor, but just roll with it please.) I’m envisioning numerous $3-5k daily price spikes on the way up…

Yes, I’m very much talking my freaking book with this highly-speculative prediction here. Doesn’t mean it’s improper for me to see that kind of scenario happening in the not-too-distant future! Say it can’t happen, I dare you! I welcome you say it, in fact! Please say it won’t occur…

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Mike Fay's avatar

History says these next few months should be pretty decent for BTC with next year providing some sort of cycle top. I’m seeing people with high six figure and even seven figure price targets. I’m extremely skeptical it goes much higher than $100k-$125k. And I know people probably don’t want to hear that, but it’s my view nonetheless.

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G Dub 19's avatar

My base case is much aligned with yours for Bitcoin price/top for this cycle (unless, of course, this time is different - and there are no more cycles in the future…I say that ~ 92% in jest btw) and also general timeline.

To be honest though, I’m sure my current viewpoint has been largely influenced (aka “jaded”, “tainted”, “besmirched”, etc) by the sheer fact that I’ve read so much of your (brainwashing) content by now that I truly don’t have a good sense of where Mike’s half-baked narratives end and my own, unique, entirely self-derived and otherwise purely acquired personal wisdom begins in my own brain anymore. Oh, don’t worry, I listen to/read several others’ half-baked narratives and attempts at fortune-telling the future price action of Bitcoin as well…you’re not the only clairvoyant sage upon whose information I base any types of actual trading activity. So you’re off the hook.

No, I prefer to make a messy mish-mash of a stew of “information” from various charlatans who proudly offer up their latest bitcoin-related brain farts in various forms, put all that nastiness together, and then somehow derive a most imperfect viewpoint for where Bitcoin is likely to go next - in the short, medium, and long-term, with particular personal emphasis/importance given to the latter 2 of those 3 different rough timeframes. Sometimes I kinda, sorta, somewhat get some things correct w/ regard to general direction it tends to go in the mid & longer-term. And that (so far, knocking on wood) has at least kept my head above water with this crazy asset. GLTA today🫡✌️

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Mike Fay's avatar

That’s the way to do it, read several different opinions on the same subject to craft your own view 👍

These views can, and should, adapt over time as new data emerges. I’ve clearly never been a maxi, but the more BTC eats the rest of the wealth in the crypto ecosystem, the less convinced I am of its long term potential as a useful asset.

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G Dub 19's avatar

I’m honestly pretty damn good with a $100-125k BTC top…100% returns in likely less than 1 year? C’mon, I love going to the moon as much as the next degen, but I’ve not yet lost touch with reality (completely) either.

Okay, granted, I must admit that such a handsome gain as that would indeed technically require one to time the bulk of their exits pretty darn near that top in order to realize such given that price range scenario, but it’s not an impossible feat either)

Would I be saving a chunk for higher if/when we hit $125k/BTC in the next year? Almost certainly I would. Can’t imagine it otherwise…but will I still have 50% or more of my current allocation still long at that point?? Most likely the answer is “hell no!”…but that does remind me of one of the funniest things about bitcoin that I’ve found personally to date, which is: even if/when Bitcoin reaches a price level I thought it likely would (regardless of whether that price level is above or below whatever the current price of it is), it never, EVER seems to ‘get there’ how I thought it would, nor for the ‘reasons’ (which can only be presumed, of course, and not ever truly KNOWN) that I had thought it would…she’s an intriguing one, that’s for damn sure 👍

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Mike Fay's avatar

It’s what makes following the space so fascinating

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